Research article
● Open access
Spatio-Temporal Variability of Climate Extremes in the Nouhao Sub-Basin, Burkina Faso: A Comprehensive Analysis of Trends and Spatial Patterns (1981-2020)
Abstract
Extreme weather events are attracting growing scientific interest due to their profound and often devastating impacts on natural ecosystems and socio-economic systems, particularly in regions where livelihoods depend heavily on climate-sensitive activities such as rain-fed agriculture. However, despite the vulnerability of the Sahel to climate variability and change, relatively few studies have focused specifically on the detailed analysis of extreme weather events in the sub-national basins of Burkina Faso, a landlocked Sahelian country in West Africa facing significant water resource challenges. This study addresses this gap by providing a comprehensive analysis of the spatio-temporal variability and trends of climate extremes, focusing on both precipitation and temperature parameters, in the Nouhao sub-basin over the forty-year period from 1981 to 2020. The analysis is based on a combination of observational station data obtained from the National Meteorological Agency of Burkina Faso and high-resolution ERA5 reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. A set of core climate extreme indices, carefully selected from the suite defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices, was calculated using the specialized RClimdex software package. These indices include consecutive dry days, consecutive wet days, maximum one-day precipitation, and maximum five-day precipitation for rainfall, as well as the percentage of cool nights, warm nights, cool days, and warm days for temperature. Statistical trend analysis was performed using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test to assess the significance of observed changes, complemented by Sen's slope estimator to quantify the magnitude of these trends. The spatial structure and distribution of the climate extremes across the basin were analyzed using geostatistical interpolation techniques, specifically kriging, implemented within a Geographic Information System framework.
The study reveals a complex and nuanced picture of climate variability in the Nouhao sub-basin. The analysis of extreme precipitation indices demonstrates strong decadal variability throughout the study period, but no clear, consistent, or monotonic long-term trend emerges for any of the rainfall-based indices over the full forty years. This suggests that the rainfall regime in this part of the Sahel is characterized more by multi-decadal oscillations and high interannual variability than by a simple, unidirectional shift towards drier or wetter conditions. In stark contrast, the analysis of extreme temperature indices reveals a much clearer and more consistent signal, pointing towards a gradual but definitive warming of the temperature regime across the basin. The findings show a general and statistically discernible trend towards a decrease in cold extremes, as evidenced by declining frequencies of cool nights and cool days, and a concurrent increase in hot extremes, reflected in rising frequencies of warm nights and warm days. This warming trend is particularly pronounced for nighttime temperatures, with the frequency of warm nights showing a statistically significant increase in the most recent decade. The spatial analysis further illustrates these changes, showing how the patterns of temperature extremes have evolved across the basin over the four decades. These results constitute a critical climate signal for the Nouhao sub-basin, providing essential scientific evidence that can inform and guide sustainable water resource management strategies, support the development of effective climate change adaptation plans for local communities, and contribute to broader efforts to enhance resilience in the face of a changing climate.
Keywords
Climate extremes; spatio-temporal variability; ETCCDI indices; trend analysis; Nouhao sub-basin; Burkina Faso; Sahel; precipitation; temperature; Mann-Kendall test; Sen's slope; kriging; water resources; climate change adaptation
References
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Akinsanola, A. A., & Zhou, W. (2019). Projections of West African summer monsoon rainfall extremes from two CORDEX models. Climate Dynamics, 52(3-4), 2017-2028. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4238-8
Bassirou, H., Masamaeya, D.-T. G., Sanda, I. S., Cheo, A. E., Sougue, M., & Pouye, I. (2023). Extreme rainfall and streamflow in Niamey City: Trends and relationship between higher streamflow and rainfall. International Journal of Water Resources Engineering, 9(1), 21-32. https://doi.org/10.37628/jwre.v9i1.802
Biasutti, M. (2019). Rainfall trends in the African Sahel: Characteristics, processes, and causes. WIREs Climate Change, 10(4), e591. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.591
Brassel, K. E., & Reif, D. (1979). A procedure to generate Thiessen polygons. Geographical Analysis, 11(3), 289-303. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1538-4632.1979.tb00695.x
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Dambia, L., Doumounia, A., Casey, V., Bounkoungou, A., & Zougmore, F. (2020). Analysis of rainfall variability on the groundwater levels of wells in the Nouaho Basin in East-Central Burkina Faso. Journal of Water Resource and Protection, 12(8), 657-672.
Donat, M. G., Alexander, L. V., Yang, H., Durre, I., Vose, R., Dunn, R. J., Willett, K. M., Aguilar, E., Brunet, M., & Caesar, J. (2013). Updated analyses of temperature and precipitation extreme indices since the beginning of the twentieth century: The HadEX2 dataset. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 118(5), 2098-2118.
Doumounia, A., Zeba, A., Dambia, L., Zougmore, F., & Nikiema, M. (2020). Climate variability analysis in the Nouaho sub-basin in eastern center of Burkina Faso. LARHYSS Journal, 41, 57-69.
Ge, F., Zhu, S., Luo, H., Zhi, X., & Wang, H. (2021). Future changes in precipitation extremes over Southeast Asia: Insights from CMIP6 multi-model ensemble. Environmental Research Letters, 16(2), 024013.
Jara, M. A., Yunsheng, L., Babaousmail, H., & Wasswa, P. (2021). Trends and zonal variability of extreme rainfall events over East Africa during 1960-2017. Natural Hazards, 109(1), 33-61. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04824-4
Konate, D., Didi, S. R., Dje, K. B., Diedhiou, A., Kouassi, K. L., Kamagate, B., Paturel, J.-E., Coulibaly, H. S. J.-P., Kouadio, C. A. K., & Coulibaly, T. J. H. (2023). Observed changes in rainfall and characteristics of extreme events in Côte d'Ivoire (West Africa). Hydrology, 10(5), 104. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology10050104
Lavorel, S., Colloff, M. J., Locatelli, B., Gorddard, R., Prober, S. M., Gabillet, M., Devaux, C., Laforgue, D., & Peyrache-Gadeau, V. (2019). Mustering the power of ecosystems for adaptation to climate change. Environmental Science & Policy, 92, 87-97.
Lichtenstern, A. (2013). Kriging methods in spatial statistics. Technical University of Munich.
Ndabagenga, D. M., Yu, J., Mbawala, J. R., Nitgwaza, C. Y., & Juma, A. S. (2023). Climatic indices' analysis on extreme precipitation for Tanzania synoptic stations. Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection, 11(12), 182-208.
Ndiaye, A., Mbaye, M. L., Arnault, J., Camara, M., & Lawin, A. E. (2023). Characterization of extreme rainfall and river discharge over the Senegal River basin from 1982 to 2021. Hydrology, 10(10), 204.
Nicholson, S. E. (2013). The West African Sahel: A review of recent studies on the rainfall regime and its interannual variability. ISRN Meteorology, 2013, 1-32. https://doi.org/10.1155/2013/453521
Noba, W. G., Dambia, L., Doumounia, A., Zongo, I., & Zougmore, F. (2023). Assessing water resources access of Nouaho sub-basin, Burkina Faso. Journal of Water Resource and Protection, 15(4), 149-164.
Ogega, O. M., Koske, J., Kung'u, J. B., Scoccimarro, E., Endris, H. S., & Mistry, M. N. (2020). Heavy precipitation events over East Africa in a changing climate: Results from CORDEX RCMs. Climate Dynamics, 55(3-4), 993-1009. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05309-z
Olauson, J. (2018). ERA5: The new champion of wind power modelling. Renewable Energy, 126, 322-331.
Oliver, M. A., & Webster, R. (1990). Kriging: A method of interpolation for geographical information systems. International Journal of Geographical Information Systems, 4(3), 313-332. https://doi.org/10.1080/02693799008941549
Panthou, G., Vischel, T., & Lebel, T. (2014). Recent trends in the regime of extreme rainfall in the Central Sahel. International Journal of Climatology, 34(15), 3998-4006. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3984
Rouamba, S., Yaméogo, J., Sanou, K., Zongo, R., & Yanogo, I. P. (2023). Trends and variability of extreme climate indices in the Boucle du Mouhoun (Burkina Faso). GEOREVIEW: Scientific Annals of Stefan cel Mare University of Suceava. Geography Series, 33(1), 70-84. https://doi.org/10.4316/GEOREVIEW.2023.01.07
Saley, I. A., & Salack, S. (2023). Present and future of heavy rain events in the Sahel and West Africa. Atmosphere, 14(6), 965.
Schleussner, C.-F., Lissner, T. K., Fischer, E. M., Wohland, J., Perrette, M., Golly, A., Rogelj, J., Childers, K., Schewe, J., & Frieler, K. (2016). Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: The case of 1.5 °C and 2 °C. Earth System Dynamics, 7(2), 327-351.
Seneviratne, S. I., Zhang, X., Adnan, M., Badi, W., Dereczynski, C., Luca, A. D., Ghosh, S., Iskandar, I., Kossin, J., & Lewis, S. (2021). Weather and climate extreme events in a changing climate. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (pp. 1513-1766). Cambridge University Press.
Sillmann, J., Kharin, V. V., Zhang, X., Zwiers, F. W., & Bronaugh, D. (2013). Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: Part 1. Model evaluation in the present climate. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 118(4), 1716-1733. https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50203
Store, C. C. D. (2023). ERA5 hourly data on single levels from 1940 to present. Copernicus Climate Change Service.
Tazen, F., Diarra, A., Kabore, R. F. W., Ibrahim, B., Bologo/Traore, M., Traore, K., & Karambiri, H. (2019). Trends in flood events and their relationship to extreme rainfall in an urban area of Sahelian West Africa: The case study of Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 12(S1), e12507. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12507
Yaméogo, J. (2024). Changes in the seasonal cycles of extreme temperatures in the Sudano-Sahelian domain in West Africa: A case study from Burkina Faso. Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management: Research and Operational Applications, 12(2), 1-25.
Zeba, A., Noba, W. G., Damiba, L., Kabré, A., Doumounia, A., Ouédraogo, S., Ouattara, F., & Zougmore, F. (2025). Study of the spatio-temporal variability of rainfall in the Nouhao sub-basin. Journal of Water Resource and Protection, 17(8), 563-576. https://doi.org/10.4236/jwarp.2025.178029
Zhang, X., Alexander, L., Hegerl, G. C., Jones, P., Tank, A. K., Peterson, T. C., Trewin, B., & Zwiers, F. W. (2011). Indices for monitoring changes in extremes based on daily temperature and precipitation data. WIREs Climate Change, 2(6), 851-870. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.147
Adeyemi, K. A., Ahmad, M. J., Adelodun, B., Odey, G., & Choi, K. S. (2024). Spatial and temporal variability of climate extremes and their impact on maize yield in North-Central Nigeria. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 155(4), 2545-2558. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04770-0
Agbo, E. P., Nkaioe, U., & Edet, C. O. (2023). Comparison of Mann-Kendall and Sen's innovative trend method for climatic parameters over Nigeria's climatic zones. Climate Dynamics, 60(11-12), 3385-3401. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06521-9
Akinsanola, A. A., & Zhou, W. (2019). Projections of West African summer monsoon rainfall extremes from two CORDEX models. Climate Dynamics, 52(3-4), 2017-2028. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4238-8
Bassirou, H., Masamaeya, D.-T. G., Sanda, I. S., Cheo, A. E., Sougue, M., & Pouye, I. (2023). Extreme rainfall and streamflow in Niamey City: Trends and relationship between higher streamflow and rainfall. International Journal of Water Resources Engineering, 9(1), 21-32. https://doi.org/10.37628/jwre.v9i1.802
Biasutti, M. (2019). Rainfall trends in the African Sahel: Characteristics, processes, and causes. WIREs Climate Change, 10(4), e591. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.591
Brassel, K. E., & Reif, D. (1979). A procedure to generate Thiessen polygons. Geographical Analysis, 11(3), 289-303. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1538-4632.1979.tb00695.x
Brohan, P., Kennedy, J. J., Harris, I., Tett, S. F. B., & Jones, P. D. (2006). Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: A new data set from 1850. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 111(D12). https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006548
Dambia, L., Doumounia, A., Casey, V., Bounkoungou, A., & Zougmore, F. (2020). Analysis of rainfall variability on the groundwater levels of wells in the Nouaho Basin in East-Central Burkina Faso. Journal of Water Resource and Protection, 12(8), 657-672.
Donat, M. G., Alexander, L. V., Yang, H., Durre, I., Vose, R., Dunn, R. J., Willett, K. M., Aguilar, E., Brunet, M., & Caesar, J. (2013). Updated analyses of temperature and precipitation extreme indices since the beginning of the twentieth century: The HadEX2 dataset. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 118(5), 2098-2118.
Doumounia, A., Zeba, A., Dambia, L., Zougmore, F., & Nikiema, M. (2020). Climate variability analysis in the Nouaho sub-basin in eastern center of Burkina Faso. LARHYSS Journal, 41, 57-69.
Ge, F., Zhu, S., Luo, H., Zhi, X., & Wang, H. (2021). Future changes in precipitation extremes over Southeast Asia: Insights from CMIP6 multi-model ensemble. Environmental Research Letters, 16(2), 024013.
Jara, M. A., Yunsheng, L., Babaousmail, H., & Wasswa, P. (2021). Trends and zonal variability of extreme rainfall events over East Africa during 1960-2017. Natural Hazards, 109(1), 33-61. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04824-4
Konate, D., Didi, S. R., Dje, K. B., Diedhiou, A., Kouassi, K. L., Kamagate, B., Paturel, J.-E., Coulibaly, H. S. J.-P., Kouadio, C. A. K., & Coulibaly, T. J. H. (2023). Observed changes in rainfall and characteristics of extreme events in Côte d'Ivoire (West Africa). Hydrology, 10(5), 104. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology10050104
Lavorel, S., Colloff, M. J., Locatelli, B., Gorddard, R., Prober, S. M., Gabillet, M., Devaux, C., Laforgue, D., & Peyrache-Gadeau, V. (2019). Mustering the power of ecosystems for adaptation to climate change. Environmental Science & Policy, 92, 87-97.
Lichtenstern, A. (2013). Kriging methods in spatial statistics. Technical University of Munich.
Ndabagenga, D. M., Yu, J., Mbawala, J. R., Nitgwaza, C. Y., & Juma, A. S. (2023). Climatic indices' analysis on extreme precipitation for Tanzania synoptic stations. Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection, 11(12), 182-208.
Ndiaye, A., Mbaye, M. L., Arnault, J., Camara, M., & Lawin, A. E. (2023). Characterization of extreme rainfall and river discharge over the Senegal River basin from 1982 to 2021. Hydrology, 10(10), 204.
Nicholson, S. E. (2013). The West African Sahel: A review of recent studies on the rainfall regime and its interannual variability. ISRN Meteorology, 2013, 1-32. https://doi.org/10.1155/2013/453521
Noba, W. G., Dambia, L., Doumounia, A., Zongo, I., & Zougmore, F. (2023). Assessing water resources access of Nouaho sub-basin, Burkina Faso. Journal of Water Resource and Protection, 15(4), 149-164.
Ogega, O. M., Koske, J., Kung'u, J. B., Scoccimarro, E., Endris, H. S., & Mistry, M. N. (2020). Heavy precipitation events over East Africa in a changing climate: Results from CORDEX RCMs. Climate Dynamics, 55(3-4), 993-1009. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05309-z
Olauson, J. (2018). ERA5: The new champion of wind power modelling. Renewable Energy, 126, 322-331.
Oliver, M. A., & Webster, R. (1990). Kriging: A method of interpolation for geographical information systems. International Journal of Geographical Information Systems, 4(3), 313-332. https://doi.org/10.1080/02693799008941549
Panthou, G., Vischel, T., & Lebel, T. (2014). Recent trends in the regime of extreme rainfall in the Central Sahel. International Journal of Climatology, 34(15), 3998-4006. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3984
Rouamba, S., Yaméogo, J., Sanou, K., Zongo, R., & Yanogo, I. P. (2023). Trends and variability of extreme climate indices in the Boucle du Mouhoun (Burkina Faso). GEOREVIEW: Scientific Annals of Stefan cel Mare University of Suceava. Geography Series, 33(1), 70-84. https://doi.org/10.4316/GEOREVIEW.2023.01.07
Saley, I. A., & Salack, S. (2023). Present and future of heavy rain events in the Sahel and West Africa. Atmosphere, 14(6), 965.
Schleussner, C.-F., Lissner, T. K., Fischer, E. M., Wohland, J., Perrette, M., Golly, A., Rogelj, J., Childers, K., Schewe, J., & Frieler, K. (2016). Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: The case of 1.5 °C and 2 °C. Earth System Dynamics, 7(2), 327-351.
Seneviratne, S. I., Zhang, X., Adnan, M., Badi, W., Dereczynski, C., Luca, A. D., Ghosh, S., Iskandar, I., Kossin, J., & Lewis, S. (2021). Weather and climate extreme events in a changing climate. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (pp. 1513-1766). Cambridge University Press.
Sillmann, J., Kharin, V. V., Zhang, X., Zwiers, F. W., & Bronaugh, D. (2013). Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: Part 1. Model evaluation in the present climate. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 118(4), 1716-1733. https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50203
Store, C. C. D. (2023). ERA5 hourly data on single levels from 1940 to present. Copernicus Climate Change Service.
Tazen, F., Diarra, A., Kabore, R. F. W., Ibrahim, B., Bologo/Traore, M., Traore, K., & Karambiri, H. (2019). Trends in flood events and their relationship to extreme rainfall in an urban area of Sahelian West Africa: The case study of Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 12(S1), e12507. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12507
Yaméogo, J. (2024). Changes in the seasonal cycles of extreme temperatures in the Sudano-Sahelian domain in West Africa: A case study from Burkina Faso. Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management: Research and Operational Applications, 12(2), 1-25.
Zeba, A., Noba, W. G., Damiba, L., Kabré, A., Doumounia, A., Ouédraogo, S., Ouattara, F., & Zougmore, F. (2025). Study of the spatio-temporal variability of rainfall in the Nouhao sub-basin. Journal of Water Resource and Protection, 17(8), 563-576. https://doi.org/10.4236/jwarp.2025.178029
Zhang, X., Alexander, L., Hegerl, G. C., Jones, P., Tank, A. K., Peterson, T. C., Trewin, B., & Zwiers, F. W. (2011). Indices for monitoring changes in extremes based on daily temperature and precipitation data. WIREs Climate Change, 2(6), 851-870. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.147