Journal of Environmental and Sustainability Science
Research Article
• Open Access
The Viability-Readiness Nexus: An Empirical Analysis of Economic and Scientific Constraints on Nature-Based Climate Solutions in the Global South
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As the global community races to limit warming to well below 2°C in accordance with the Paris Agreement, Nature-based Solutions (NbS) have emerged as a critical, yet underutilized, pillar of climate change mitigation. While biophysical assessments suggest NbS can deliver up to 23.8 petagrams of CO2 equivalent per year, actual implementation in the voluntary carbon market (VCM) remains severely constrained. This original research paper investigates the intersection of economic viability and scientific readiness in determining the success of NbS projects. Utilizing a synthesized dataset of 150 hypothetical but empirically grounded NbS projects across Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Sub-Saharan Africa, this study develops a "Viability-Readiness Nexus" framework. Through multiple regression analysis, the paper tests how carbon pricing, monitoring and verification costs, scientific readiness scores, and land tenure security predict the actual volume of carbon credits retired. The findings reveal that scientific readiness (measurability, additionality, and permanence) and land tenure security are stronger predictors of project success than raw carbon market prices. Furthermore, high monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) costs act as a binding constraint, particularly for blue carbon and peatland restoration projects in Southeast Asia. The paper concludes that scaling NbS requires a paradigm shift away from pure market-based pricing toward integrated policy frameworks that subsidize MRV infrastructure, enforces standardized scientific assessments, and formalizes land tenure.
Keywords
nature-based solutions, voluntary carbon market, scientific readiness, climate mitigation, land tenure, multiple regressionReferences
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